NASA Predicts Asteroid Will Hit Earth In 2032

NASA has been keeping a close eye on asteroid 2024 YR4, a 200-foot-wide space rock that has recently seen its odds of hitting Earth slightly increase. The agency’s Sentry Earth Impact Monitoring system now estimates a 1.3% chance of impact on 22 December 2032—up from the previous 1.2%. While this may sound like the plot of a disaster movie, experts insist there’s no reason to panic just yet.

Astronomers have mapped out a possible impact zone stretching from South America across the Atlantic Ocean to sub-Saharan Africa. If this asteroid were to strike, it could cause significant devastation, as it is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid that exploded over Siberia in 1908—flattening 80 million trees and releasing energy equivalent to 50 million tons of TNT.

MORE: The Astronaut Wears Prada: The First Woman on the Moon Will Rock This Spacesuit

DISCOVER: Virgin Galactic Hosted The Most Women Flown in a Single Mission to Space

However, planetary scientist Professor Richard P. Binzel of MIT is urging people not to overreact. Speaking to DailyMail.com, he explained, “The difference between 1.2% and 1.3% doesn’t matter… we can expect the probability numbers to wobble around a bit. This is simply how scientific data measurements play out.”

So, what’s the most likely outcome? Experts believe 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth at a distance of around 66,000 miles. But in the unlikely event that it does collide with our planet, the level of destruction would depend on several factors—most notably its composition and whether it explodes mid-air or hits the ground directly.

MORE: AI Breakthrough Predicts Breast Cancer 5 Years Early—And We Finally Know How It Works

DISCOVER:Researchers are training AI to detect breast cancer

NASA currently ranks this asteroid as a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale—making it the most potentially hazardous Near Earth Object (NEO) on their radar. But even that rating remains far from a guaranteed catastrophe, as most asteroids never score higher than a 2 on the scale.

To better understand the asteroid’s potential impact, astronomers will need to determine its exact size and composition. According to planetary scientist Dr Rankin, “Size and composition are big players in possible damage, along with impact location.”

Radar observations—considered the gold standard for measuring asteroid size—are scheduled for 2028 when 2024 YR4 makes a closer pass within five million miles of Earth. Until then, scientists will rely on its brightness to make rough estimates.

MORE: The Science Behind Coperni’s Ultra-Light, Space-Age Tote

DISCOVER: ‘AI’ searches rocket to the highest point in history

Dr Rankin also notes that if the asteroid is composed of stony material, it could trigger a massive air burst similar to Tunguska. However, if it’s made of iron, “it will punch right through the atmosphere with little trouble and make an impact crater.”

Despite the risks, experts agree that there’s no need to worry—at least, not yet. Dr Rankin reassures, “Impact probability is still very low, and the most likely outcome will be a close-approaching rock that misses us.”

With 2032 still years away, the race is on to gather as much data as possible. But for now, it looks like our holiday plans for that December should remain intact.